HYBRID FORECASTING COMPETITION

We're inventing better ways to predict the future using your predictions and artificial intelligence.

We need you if you are a:

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Political science student

Undergraduate or graduate student in political science, international studies, or a related field.

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Professional in government

Professional working (or hoping to work in) government, diplomacy, or public policy anywhere in the world.

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Veteran
or retiree

A U.S. Veteran or retired government employee.

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News
junkie

Someone who regularly reads and discusses the news with friends or colleagues.

How you can get involved:

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Sign Up

If we get enough people registered, funds will be released to pay qualifying participants up to $300 each.

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Agree to the terms, tell us about yourself, and participate in the pre-season practice round

When you sign up, you'll be asked to sign a consent form and answer some questions about yourself. Then, you'll see a few questions you can make predictions in.

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Start the official HFC tournament

If you’re active in the practice round, you’ll qualify to start the official tournament and be assigned to a research team from December until September 2019.

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Contribute your predictions on global events

Help out your research team by responding to 10 forecasting questions per month and earn up to $300.*

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Making a prediction in “Carbon,” one of the research platforms

Our Mission

HFC advances the science of forecasting to make our world and communities safer. The ability to make accurate judgments about the future impacts global policy making, resource allocation, and response readiness. Ultimately, this research has the potential to save lives and precious resources.

Why participate?

Mission community

Be part of a community contributing to the advancement of science;

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Help make the world safer as we learn to more accurately anticipate global surprises and can therefore react more effectively;

Mission safe

Develop better judgment and foresight, critical skills that are valuable in any field;

Mission success

Feel empowered when you make accurate predictions. Celebrate your success with recruiters, colleagues, even at parties!

Our Story

You’ll join a lineage of cutting edge research sponsored by the U.S. Intelligence Community.

2000's

The "IC" began exploring crowdsourced forecasting in the mid-2000’s to enhance existing methods of analytic judgment.

2011

A research effort called Aggregate Contingent Estimation (ACE) was created out of the U.S. Intelligence Community's advanced research group, IARPA, to test if crowds with access to publicly available news under various conditions could be accurate making predictions.

The answer was a resounding “yes.”

2015

The positive results from ACE led to the creation of multiple projects to try and better predict the future using various crowdsourcing methods.

2017

HFC is launched to try and combine human and AI-based predictions in new ways to make even more accurate predictions.

2018+

If you join HFC, you'll be part of this cutting edge research, which may eventually become part of the tools and methods used by thousands of U.S. Intelligence analysts.

Competing research teams

Qualifying participants will be assigned to one of the research teams competing to find the best methods of forecasting.

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HFC is sponsored by IARPA, an advanced research group in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. IARPA takes real risks, solves hard problems, and invests in research that has the potential to provide our nation with an overwhelming intelligence advantage.

*Up to $300 will be paid at the conclusion of the research project in the form of an Amazon gift card. Payment will be made based on the minimum level of required participation. Full eligibility details are provided in the consent form upon sign up.