The Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) is testing the limits of geopolitical forecasting by combining the ingenuity of human analysts with cutting-edge machine systems.

To become part of this breakthrough research program, complete 3 easy steps before April 8th:

  1. Sign up now (see form on the right)
  2. Complete a thought-provoking survey (no passing score, but you will get feedback)
  3. Receive your Hybrid Forecasting Competition team assignment April 11th, begin forecasting shortly thereafter.
The Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) research program is sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA).


Hybrid Forecasting for a Better World

HFC is a multi-year, U.S. Intelligence Community-funded research competition that seeks to develop and test hybrid forecasting methods that will radically improve the accuracy and timeliness of geopolitical and geoeconomic forecasts.

Intelligence analysts and professionals in many other fields wrestle with the problem of how human judgments should be combined with forecasts based on computer algorithms and statistical models to optimize their ability to accurately forecast future events.

HFC aims to improve forecasting by combining the benefits of human- and machine-driven forecasting systems. Hybrid approaches hold promise for combining the strengths of these two approaches while mitigating their individual weaknesses. HFC will develop and test methods to optimize the collaboration of human and machine to create maximally accurate forecasts.

Sign up before April 8th to participate in this entirely web-based research project. Once you have signed up, you will be asked to review and accept our terms of participation and then complete an intake/background survey. On April 11th, you will be assigned to an HFC research team forecasting system and contribute forecast inputs for numerous real-world forecast questions released on an ongoing basis. After April 8th, all registrations will be saved for inclusion in the next HFC phase, tentatively beginning November 2018.

Are you ready to forecast? Take your first step to participate in HFC!
Sign Up Now