The Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) will test the limits of geopolitical forecasting by combining the ingenuity of human analysts with cutting-edge machine systems.
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HFC is a multi-year, U.S. Intelligence Community-funded research competition that seeks to develop and test hybrid forecasting methods that will radically improve the accuracy and timeliness of geopolitical and geoeconomic forecasts.
Intelligence analysts and professionals in many other fields wrestle with the problem of how human judgments should be combined with forecasts based on computer algorithms and statistical models to optimize their ability to accurately forecast future events.
HFC aims to improve forecasting by combining the benefits of human- and machine-driven forecasting systems. Hybrid approaches hold promise for combining the strengths of these two approaches while mitigating their individual weaknesses. HFC will develop and test methods to optimize the collaboration of human and machine to create maximally accurate forecasts.
Sign up here to participate in this entirely web-based research project. Once you have signed up, you will be asked to review and accept our terms of participation and then complete an intake/background survey. In early 2018, the HFC Tournament will officially begin: you will be assigned to an HFC research team forecasting system and contribute forecast inputs for numerous real-world forecast questions released on an ongoing basis.