DOES (HUMAN + MACHINE) x GEOPOLITICAL FORECASTING = HYPERACCURACY?

The Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) is underway! HFC tests the limits of geopolitical forecasting by combining the ingenuity of human analysts with cutting-edge machine systems. The next season of HFC begins in Fall 2018, and registration officially begins in Summer 2018. You can reserve a spot now by signing-up, and we’ll contact you with further participation details soon!”

The Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) research program is sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA).

HUMAN + MACHINE

Hybrid Forecasting for a Better World

HFC is a multi-year, U.S. Intelligence Community-funded research competition that seeks to develop and test hybrid forecasting methods that will radically improve the accuracy and timeliness of geopolitical and geoeconomic forecasts.

Intelligence analysts and professionals in many other fields wrestle with the problem of how human judgments should be combined with forecasts based on computer algorithms and statistical models to optimize their ability to accurately forecast future events.

HFC aims to improve forecasting by combining the benefits of human- and machine-driven forecasting systems. Hybrid approaches hold promise for combining the strengths of these two approaches while mitigating their individual weaknesses. HFC will develop and test methods to optimize the collaboration of human and machine to create maximally accurate forecasts.

Sign up to participate in this entirely web-based research project. In Fall 2018, we will contact you with further details about participation in the second round of HFC.