The Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) is a government-sponsored research program designed to test the limits of geopolitical forecasting. By combining the ingenuity of human analysts with cutting edge machine systems (including statistical models and algorithms), HFC will develop novel capabilities to help the U.S. Intelligence Community improve their forecasts in an increasingly uncertain world.

Be a part of this breakthrough research program and test your skills as a forecaster while helping to develop systems that could produce the most accurate forecasts ever.

The Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) research program is sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA).


Hybrid Forecasting for a Better World

HFC is a multi-year, U.S. Intelligence Community-funded research competition that seeks to develop and test hybrid forecasting methods that will radically improve the accuracy and timeliness of geopolitical and geoeconomic forecasts.

Intelligence analysts and professionals in many other fields wrestle with the problem of how human judgments should be combined with forecasts based on computer algorithms and statistical models to optimize their ability to accurately forecast future events.

HFC aims to improve forecasting by combining the benefits of human- and machine-driven forecasting systems. Hybrid approaches hold promise for combining the strengths of these two approaches while mitigating their individual weaknesses. HFC will develop and test methods to optimize the collaboration of human and machine to create maximally accurate forecasts.

Sign up here to participate in this entirely web-based research project. Once you have signed up, you will be asked to review and accept our terms of participation and then complete an intake/background survey. After that, you will have the opportunity to join our “HFC Challenge,” where you can practice forecasting on questions similar to those to be used in the official HFC Tournament. Finally, in early 2018, the HFC Tournament will officially begin: you will be assigned to an HFC research team forecasting system and contribute forecast inputs for numerous real-world forecast questions released on an ongoing basis.

Are you ready to forecast? Take your first step to participate in HFC!
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